Ahoana no hahitana ny fizahantany manerantany: lesona iray avy any Hawaii

Aloha ...

I’m delighted to be with you at this virtual seminar. In the short time available today I want to talk about the dramatic changes that are occurring in tourism around the world and, in particular, in Hawai‘i. I am a consultant with GUILD consulting specializing in marketing for the tourism and hospitality industry in Hawai‘i and in international markets and in the many years I have worked in this area I have never seen an impact similar to what has happened with the COVID 19 pandemic. The impacts were dramatic and abrupt and will probably have a lasting effect on tourism far into the future. Because of this, Hawai‘i and other tourism destinations will need to rethink and reinvent tourism.

Today, I would like to begin by putting things in context by looking at the tourism industry globally and in Hawai‘i … including the fundamental forces that have driven the growth in tourism arrivals, but also some of the concerning trends that have raised questions about tourism even before the COVID crisis.

I have some data to share with you about the dramatic impacts of the pandemic on Hawai‘i tourism.

And now, more than a year after the pandemic shutdown, I’ll point out some of the continuing concerns and hopeful signs as tourism begins to recover.

Finally … and this is always dangerous … I will share some forecasts about tourism recovery and thoughts about how tourism will change going forward.

Globally, tourism has been an economic sector showing fairly consistent growth over the years, though it is a fragile industry and has seen disruptions due to events like 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis. International global arrivals totaled about 1.5 billion in 2019, a 3.7% growth over 2018 … and a 4.8% annual growth rate over the previous ten years.

Tourism has long been an important part of the Hawai‘i economy. In 2019 it accounted for about 17% of the gross domestic product and supported about 216,000 jobs.

The growth in tourist arrivals was steady in the years after 1959 when Hawai‘i became a state. Growth was driven by the introduction of jet aircraft, the growth of the Japan market and the development of resorts on the Neighbor Islands. Arrivals growth somewhat stabilized in the 1990s and the market was affected by disruptions such as 9/11, SARS, and the 2008 financial crisis.  As you can see, in the years following the financial crisis, arrivals really grew rapidly. International arrivals accounted for a little less than a third of arrivals in 2019. 

Taking a closer look at the years since 2008, arrivals grew by more than 50% … from about 6.7 million visitors in 2008 to over 10 million visitors in 2019.

While that kind of growth in arrivals looks wonderful the picture changes when you look at real – or inflation adjusted – visitor spending. It turns out that despite having millions more visitors, visitor spending in 2019 was about the same as it was in 1989. And that increase in visitors has created overcrowding in some sites and concerns among residents that tourism is not benefitting them.